Peramalan Jumlah Permintaan Pengisian Tabung Oksigen Di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Metode ARIMA
Abstract
The cause of the high Covid-19 death rate in Indonesia is because COVID-19 patients experience respiratory problems and there are still many people who do not comply with PPKM rules and the 5M health protocol. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the health, social and economic aspects of society. In the health aspect, one obvious impact is that many people have difficulty filling oxygen cylinders, especially in the East Java area. To overcome this, in July 2021 the provincial government opened free oxygen filling stations in 4 areas, namely Surabaya, Sidoarjo, Gresik, and Malang. This study aims to predict the number of oxygen cylinders that will fill in the future. This research is intended to minimize the shortage or excess stock of oxygen demand. One way of forecasting that can be done is to use the Time Series method, namely ARIMA. It was found that the best model for oxygen fulfillment data had an MSE value of 51.6 with ARIMA (2,1,2). The results of the forecasting show that the oxygen supply in October is almost the same for every day and only depends on fluctuations in the oxygen supply that day.
Abstrak
Penyebab tingginya angka kematian Covid-19 di Indonesia karena pasien COVID-19 mengalami gangguan pernapasan dan masih banyak masyarakat yang belum mematuhi aturan PPKM dan protokol kesehatan 5M. Pandemi Covid-19 telah memberikan dampak negatif pada aspek kesehatan, sosial, dan ekonomi masyarakat. Pada aspek kesehatan, salah satu dampak yang jelas adalah banyak masyarakat kesulitan mengisi tabung oksigen, terutama di wilayah Jawa Timur. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut, maka pada Juli 2021 pemerintah provinsi membuka stasiun pengisian oksigen gratis di 4 wilayah, yakni Surabaya, Sidoarjo, Gresik, dan Malang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi jumlah tabung oksigen yang akan melakukan pengisian di masa yang akan datang. Penelitian ini ditujukan untuk meminimalisir kekurangan atau kelebihan stok kebutuhan oksigen. Salah satu cara peramalan yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan menggunakan metode Time Series yaitu ARIMA. Didapatkan bahwa model terbaik untuk data pemenuhan oksigen memiliki nilai MSE sebesar 51,6 dengan ARIMA (2,1,2). Hasil peramalan didapatkan bahwa suplai oksigen pada bulan oktober hampir sama untuk setiap harinya dan hanya tergantung fluktuasi suplai oksigen hari itu.
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