PERAMALAN PENYEBARAN JUMLAH KASUS VIRUS EBOLA DI GUINEA DENGAN METODE ARIMA
Abstract
Ebola virus can cause death. The spread number of cases of this virus is very rapidly, especially in the Guinea of West Africa. Based on the past data, the spread number of cases of ebola virus can be predicted by the method of time series namely ARIMA method. In this study the researcher used 63 cases of ebola virus. By using ARIMA method, it was found that an appropriate model for the spread of ebola virus cases is ARIMA(0,2,3). Based on the model, the spread number of cases of ebola virus can be predictedfor the next 13 periods, with the result that the spread number of cases of ebola virus has decreased from period to period.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish in UJMC (Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science) agree to the following terms:
1.Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-SA 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2.Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
3.Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
