METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING HOLT-WINTERS UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH WISATAWAN NUSANTARA DI KABUPATEN BANYUWANGI

  • Feby Indriana Yusuf Universitas PGRI Banyuwangi
  • Dwi Hilda Anjasari Universitas PGRI Banyuwangi
Keywords: Forecasting, Triple Exponential Smoothing, Domestic Tourism

Abstract

Forecasting is how to predict future event by considering the past data. This research aims to determine the results of the comparison of forecasting the number of domestic tourists in Banyuwangi by triple exponential smoothing method of Holt-Winters multiplicative and additive models in order to obtain the best model. The data used in this research is the number of domestic tourists in Banyuwangi period January 2010 to March 2018. The results showed that forecasting by the triple exponential smoothing method of multiplicative models with a smoothing constant α = 0.18; γ = 0.03 and β = 0.1 obtained the smallest value of MAPE and MSE.

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Published
2019-01-19